After 2 MPs from karnataka resigned and the midterm election debacle BJP party been reduced to minority status now with 271 MPs on board.
Meanwhile Congress has increased its stake from 44 to 48 that made waken up call for BJP president Amit shah and Last week, the BJP suddenly seemed to remember it was part of a coalition too.
During 2014 BJP knitted coalition by grouping of 18 parties in 2014 made it to get 282 seats a simple majority.
And with pre poll alliance NDA got 336 seats in that Indeed, six of the allies didn’t win a single parliamentary seat.
Since then, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which sent 16 members to Parliament in 2014, has split from the NDA. And now TDP turned bitter foe to Amit Shah and Modi.
Partners in the Mumbai government, the Shiv Sena and the BJP are fractious allies. In recent months, the Shiv Sena has increased the pitch of its sniping attacks on the BJP, threatened to go it alone in 2019, and even fought the BJP in the recent election for the Palghar Lok Sabha constituency., where it came a creditable second, in that also not too far behind its ally in a poll where EVM tampering marked by opposition parties.
Party president Amit Shah made the pilgrim to Matoshree, the residence of Uddhav Thackeray, the head of the Shiv Sena, one of the BJP’s oldest allies.
However neither the BJP nor the Shiv Sena has been particularly forthcoming about what happened during the meeting. But Shiv sena still goes ahead with its critics on Modi.
With 18 Lok Sabha seats, the Shiv Sena is the second largest constituent of the NDA and definitely not an ally the BJP can choose to ignore.
A day after that meeting, Shah was off to Chandigarh to meet Prakash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal of the Shiromani Akali Dal.
This meeting ended well, and Badal Jr even issued a call to other allies to fall in line and be ready for the 2019 election.
The same day, Patna witnessed a so-called NDA unity meeting that marked clear split written on wall.
Upendra Kushwaha, the leader of one of the NDA’s constituents, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party didn’t attend the meeting.
The other constituents of the NDA in Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Jan Shakti Party (of Ram Vilas Paswan) attended, but in recent days, the JD(U) has been vocal about the fact that it, not the BJP, is the senior member of the coalition in the state.
The lalu yadav party has own the two parliament seats and assembly elections that gives sleep less nights to powerful JDS - BJP alliance.
The spate of meetings with allies seems to suggest that the BJP is realising that it too will need partners in 2019, belying the Modi vs United Opposition narrative it has been subscribing to until now.
Simple mathematics should have highlighted the speciousness of that narrative. In 2014, the NDA had a 38.8% vote share and won 336 seats; and the UPA, 23.3% vote share, which helped it win 59 seats. Other, non-NDA and non-UPA parties had a 37.9% vote share and won 148 seats.
The situation has changed a bit since 2014. While the TDP has exited the NDA, the Janata Dal (Secular), DMK has become a partner of the Congress And the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh have formed an alliance and this alliance already swept three biggest by polls in the state where BJP is ruling with brutal majority.
It is likely that the two Uttar Pradesh parties, responsible for the BJP’s loss in the three recent Lok Sabha by-polls seats in the state, will be part of a larger alliance that also includes the Congress. This scenario echoes in bihar that makes Lalu's RJD take upper hand.
In bihar and UP alone BJP has got 94 MPs in 2014 and this if been checked due to opposition unity will make BJP lose its balance and go well below 200.
The Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s K Chandrashekar Rao have both indicated their desire to be part of a united opposition.
The DMK that not part of alliance with congress that has got 1.8 % votes in 2014 is now going to face election with congress in 2019 is sending cold waves to the Spine of BJP.
With economy on turmoil and increase of bank debts the makes banks to take shelter in bond market that result in non funding for projects and business and fall of Rupees, fall in exports, the improper installation of GST., rise in petrol prices all adds to the worries not only to the alliance of NDA but BJP more in particular.
With Opposition coming together and With only 8 months ahead of election if BJP fails to flock its 18 parties coalition it is bound to loss its mantle to rule India for next term.